What started as an internal battle between rival military factions has since exploded into a much larger regional and global conflict, the Sudan Civil War. But the conflict has sucked in neighboring states and attracted a range of international powers, turning Sudan into a geopolitical frontline. The conflict has become increasingly internationalized as the more than four-year-old civil war has worked to unravel the country and states working to define the course of it.
SUDAN CIVIL WAR—THE DOMINO EFFECT: In this analysis, OpenSecrets examines the core driving forces for internationalizing the Sudanese situation concerning regional and global players and implications that could follow out on Africa and beyond reachable space.
The Core of the Conflict: A Power Struggle
The Sudan Civil War began in April 2023 with the divide of the Sudanese military into two rival factions, one being the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), commanded by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, while the other was led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan (as SAF). It came during a bungled return to civilian rule, after the overthrow of the then-president in 2019.
What started as an internal military affair has exploded into a humanitarian disaster, that cost the lives of thousands of agents but also forced three million people into exile (less than 27 million in total population) and most of their regions were nuked ago. The destruction facilitated the entry of foreign nations and non-state actors, all pursuing their interests and aims.
Sudan Conflict & Regional Players
The geographical position of Sudan at the crossroads of North Africa and the Horn of Africa turns it into a prize for major regional powers. Ethiopia is embroiled in the battleground, as are neighbors Egypt and Chad, either directly or indirectly.
Egypt (Close Ally of Sudan’s Military Leadership and Supports General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan & SAF) Stability in Sudan is an existential question for Egypt, which also asserts a claim to the Nile River. Egypt is worried that more turmoil will spill over and, like previous waves of migration since chaos erupted in Libya after the 2011 uprising, some refugees could head north to Egypt as they look for a better life, or even allow militant groups to take hold where it shares borders with southern neighbors.
Ethiopia has put effort into trying to mediate between the fighting parties, but it is another fragile state, with its domestic problems and also a difficult relationship with them over the filling of Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Ethiopia, meanwhile, has been sitting on the fence because it is worried about a border dispute with Sudan and or having its violence spill over.
Chad and South Sudan — Both Chad and they have long, porous borders with Sudan and are therefore vulnerable to refugee flows as well as cross-border militancy. Each of the two countries is struggling to contain the humanitarian impact of the conflict, with camps for displaced people rapidly swelling. In particular, South Sudan has been engaged in peace talks, reflecting its interest in a stable Sudan.
Superpowers and Geo-spatial Aims
Sudan Civil War Spills Beyond Region The war has also drawn in the U.S., Russia, and regional countries as well for various reasons geopolitical or economic.
Russia:Russia’s an extent-interest in Sudanist wined with the country’s larger goals for Africa. The RSF is said to have been reinforced by the Wagner Group, a private Russian paramilitary organization, in return for access to Sudanese gold mines. This fits into a larger, established Russian strategy of increasing its fields of operations for the achievement of valuable minerals. For Russia, the base was a way to preserve its influence in Sudan and as part of its wider power play with the West amid ongoing tensions over the war in Ukraine.
United States and Western allies:The US and its allies have called for peace talks that could lead to an end of 15 years of war, and the return of civilian rule in Sudan. Pentagon officials say thousands of people have lost their lives as a result of the conflict in Yemen, adding that Washington is worried the instability could create a security vacuum that militants might exploit and lead to a humanitarian crisis.
The US has provided humanitarian aid and slapped sanctions on individuals and entities connected to the conflict, in a bid to press the warring parties into talks. Nonetheless, Western diplomacy has had only partial success so far, for whoever looks at the (ground) map will see one of entangled interests.
Middle East Powers:The UAE and Saudi Arabia, are both strategically and economically interested in Sudan as they are acting in many other parts of the world. The UAE, for one, has close links to Hemedti and the RSF, as it worked with that paramilitary during the war in Yemen.
In addition, the two countries want to ensure that chaos does not spread in a region where they see Sudan as an entrance (to overreach their), especially in light of their ambitions in Africa.
Humanitarian Crisis and Global Response
The conflict is dragging on with the humanitarian situation in Sudan rapidly deteriorating. More than 4 million people have been uprooted by the war, with a number having escaped to neighboring countries like Egypt, Chad, and South Sudan. The United Nations and other international bodies have warned of the possibility of famine, a surge in disease, and shortages of basic services such as healthcare and clean water.
In turn, international humanitarian efforts have been obstructed by the ongoing fighting, hampering aid agencies’ ability to deliver supplies to distressed areas. The United Nations has demanded an end to hostilities, calling for a ceasefire to allow humanitarian supplies into the country.
There is an international divide on how best to manage the situation. And while some states have been calling for sanctions are diplomatic tricks, others have said they are happy enough to sit back and let regional actors solve the conflict.
What Comes Next in Sudan’s Civil War
The increasingly internationalized dimensions of the Sudan Civil War make it hard to deliver peace. There are too many external actors involved, each with their interests, such that a resolution seems far off. The larger the war drags on, the higher the chance it has of escalating with more foreign involvement and being transformed into a long regional war.
The world has become a global village and hence the international community is torn between peace efforts on one hand and the regional versus global power struggles in respect to Afghanistan. As such, anytime Sudan is on the brink of instability like what happened in 2018, all red flags must immediately go up, as the ramifications could be felt across North Africa and the Horn of Africa for years to come.
The war was ethnically mixed from that earlier struggle, and the civil war contributed to the evolution of a novel phenomenon: an internationalized internal conflict. The more the regional and global powers get involved in the war, the higher the stakes.
